PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Is the US banning TikTok? What a TikTok ban would mean for you.

Time may be PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerrunning out for TikTok.

In March, the House voted overwhelmingly to approve a bill that would force Chinese parent company ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations. The bill then moved to the Senate, where its future was uncertain.

This week House Speaker Mike Johnson tied the measure to a foreign aid package for Ukraine and Israel, putting it on a fast track to becoming law and increasing the possibility of a ban in the United States. 

The House is set to vote on the emergency spending package this weekend. The Senate is expected to take up the measure next week and President Joe Biden has promised to sign it.

One possible hitch: Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who opposes the TikTok bill on First Amendment grounds and the foreign aid package it is attached to, says he wants to drag out the vote. 

What would the TikTok bill do?

The bill would would be a major blow to the popular app which is used by as many as 170 million Americans. It would force ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations within months of the legislation becoming law or face a nationwide ban.

“It is unfortunate that the House of Representatives is using the cover of important foreign and humanitarian assistance to once again jam through a ban bill that would trample the free speech rights of 170 million Americans, devastate 7 million businesses, and shutter a platform,” TikTok wrote in a post on X Wednesday.

What happens if Biden signs the TikTok bill?

Even if Biden signs the bill into law, it will face a slew of legal challenges from TikTok and its supporters. 

TikTok says it will exhaust all legal avenues before it considers divestiture from ByteDance. The popular app has successfully fought back similar measures in the courts.

When would ByteDance be forced to sell TikTok?

The bill itself gives ByteDance nearly a year to divest TikTok – nine months, with a possible three-month extension – far longer than the six-month deadline the original House measure proposed. 

Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell of Washington State said the extended deadline could help the bill survive legal challenges.

The Chinese Embassy is meeting with congressional staffers to lobby against the legislation, two Capitol Hill staffers told Politico.

Apple removed several apps including Meta’s WhatsApp and Threads from its app store in China at Beijing’s request in apparent retaliation for the legislation.

Why does Congress want to ban TikTok?

The popular app has faced scrutiny over its Chinese control which lawmakers say poses a national security threat.

TikTok says it has never been asked to provide U.S. user data to the Chinese government and wouldn’t anyway.

TikTok has also come under fire for the way its algorithm recommends videos to users, including videos on sensitive subjects and videos about the Israel-Hamas war

Where does Biden stand on a TikTok ban?

Biden supports a forced sale of TikTok but "has not called for a ban" on the app, his top science advisor said at Semafor's World Economy Summit.

"The big issue for TikTok from a national security perspective is about the vast amount of information that the platform is able to collect about people and specifically the fact that because of its ownership there’s there’s a direct line to the People’s Republic of China, which in in the geopolitics of today is a deeply concerning issue," Arati Prabhakar, the White House Director of Science and Technology Policy, said.

Would TikTok parent company ByteDance sell TikTok? 

TikTok has said it considers any law that would force a sale as the equivalent of a ban because of the hurdles facing any deal. 

Divestiture also would require Beijing’s approval. Last year, the Chinese government said it opposed a forced sale.

Who would buy TikTok?

"While the price tag will be eye-popping, TikTok's strategic value and consumer platform will have a number of financial and tech strategic players interested," said Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives.

Investor groups and major tech giants including Microsoft, Apple and Oracle will consider bids, according to Ives. He also expects joint bids from a handful of Big Tech companies.

Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and "Shark Tank" star Kevin O’Leary have also expressed interest in buying TikTok.

An initial public offering or a spin-off are two other potential outcomes, Ives said.

What about the TikTok algorithm?

Another key challenge is TikTok’s algorithm that recommends videos to users. The bill prohibits ByteDance from controlling the algorithm. China has cracked down on Chinese tech companies exporting those technologies.

Ives said China and ByteDance "will never allow the source code to be sold to a U.S. tech company in our view."

In addition, "detaching the algorithm from ByteDance would be a very complex process with much scrutiny from U.S. regulators," he said.

How would a TikTok ban work?

If signed into law, the bill would prevent app stores like Apple and Google from distributing or updating TikTok and web hosting companies from distributing it.

Banning the app won’t necessarily stop TikTok fans from using it. In 2020 when India banned TikTok after an incident at the Chinese border, TikTok users found workarounds to circumvent the ban.

Those strategies include using a VPN or changing your location on your phone to fool the app stores. Another option is "side-loading" − downloading and installing a bootleg version of the TikTok app from the internet − but it carries the risk of downloading malware.

Who would benefit from a TikTok ban?

YouTube, Facebook and Instagram would benefit most from a TikTok ban. Snapchat and Pinterest could also draw users and advertising dollars from TikTok, analysts say.

YouTube continues to be the No. 1 app with teens. Nine in 10 teens use the app followed by TikTok (63%), Snapchat (60%) and Instagram (59%), according to Pew Research Center. Teens are less likely to use Facebook and X (formerly Twitter) than they were a decade ago.

X owner Elon Musk conducted a poll on the social media platform, hinting he might bring back mobile video app Vine.  Musk said Friday he opposed banning TikTok.

"In my opinion, TikTok should not be banned in the USA, even though such a ban may benefit the X platform," he wrote on X. "Doing so would be contrary to freedom of speech and expression. It is not what America stands for."

What do Americans think about a TikTok ban?

The American public remains divided. 

Nearly half of the respondents in a CNBC All-America Economic Survey poll taken in March say TikTok should be banned or sold to a non-Chinese company.

Forty percent of Democrats and 60% of Republicans support a ban or a sale of the popular app, the survey found.